How we set the odds

What a card is worth

Every card has one value, its market price, near mint. Every night we read the copies for sale: the value is the average of the third and fourth cheapest copies, counting every copy.

With fewer than 10 copies or 3 sellers, the value is the average of the second and third cheapest copies.

Cards worth up to €0.15 are worth their market price, never more than the price of their copies for sale.

Without a recent market price, they are worth the price of their copies for sale less €0.09, and at least €0.01.

When we set the odds and work out what a pack is worth, a card under €0.04 counts as €0.04.

A card with no value today keeps its last known value, with its date.

Where the odds of a sealed pack come from

Pokémon: counts of thousands of opened packs, published by TCGplayer, or by the community where TCGplayer has none.

Magic: the contents of each pack, published by Wizards of the Coast.

One Piece: no one publishes the odds, not even Bandai. We use our own estimate from public reports of opened boxes.

Every odds page says where its numbers come from.

How our packs change the odds

We start from the odds of a sealed pack. Kinds of hits found at least once every 30 packs come out more often, and plain cards make room, until the cards are worth about 85% of the price on average. When card prices are high, those kinds can come out less often instead.

The rarest kinds never come out less often. In Magic, plain cards worth €5 or more keep the odds of a sealed pack.

In One Piece, Super Rares and parallels come out more often, and the rarest cards, all together, come out in 1 pack in 20,000.

Cards with fewer than 3 copies for sale leave the pack until they are back, and their odds go to cards of the same kind. Every odds page lists them.

Prices are in Stamps: 80 Stamps are €1.

When the odds change

We check card prices every day. When the cards of a pack move out of 84% to 87% of its price on average, new odds go up the same day, aimed at 85.5%.

The odds page always shows the odds in force, and the average value at the day's card prices.

A pack you buy keeps the cards drawn when you bought it.

What our packs don't copy

God packs, box toppers and boxes without duplicates. Our Pokémon packs have no Basic Energy and no code card for Pokémon TCG Live.

Reading the odds

1 in N means one every N packs on average: in Magic and One Piece a pack can hold two cards of the same kind.

The typical pack is the one in the middle: half of the packs are worth less.

Single packs vary a lot.